Non-violent Counter Terrorism : A Possible Solution

On 1st of May, five ABB workers on contract to Exxon Mobil's chemical joint venture in Yanbu were killed outside the plant. On May 29th, gunmen attacked a residential compound in khobar, Saudi Arabia and as if this wasnt enough, On June 18th a Lockheed Martin Employee gets beheaded by al Qaeda terrorists. For Saudi Arabia, I can recall only one word which accurately describes the situation, and surprisingly it comes from a book called, "only the paranoids survive" by Andy Grove. The word is 'inflexion point'. In fact, the ever increasing presence of Armed Forces amidst civilians is not going to be a transient affair. The rubicon has been crossed and a strategic change must happen. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is not alone, there are several countries hit by this nuisance; America, UK, Israel and India to name a few.

Isnt it surprising that small groups can harrass a giant monolithic structure such as the Government, with paltry resources! Where has all the power of this monolith gone? Why can't a country as strong as America, get rid of this nuisance? Would a direct hit on the suspected terrorist bases in their homelands really help? The answer is No. No amount of direct pressure and force will work. To exemplify this point, lets look at Iraq. The US Forces moved in swiftly accross the deserts but were held back by guerilla warfare in the towns and cities of Iraq. And now, almost six months after fall of Saddam, there is only pseudo-normalcy in the region and strikes against the US Forces in Iraq still continue. Loretta Napoleoni, the author of the book 'Modern Jihad - Tracing the Dollars behind the Terror Networks' points out in her gripping research work that this isnt the first time we are facing such situation. It is only becasue of the renewed interest and conviction of the authorities to investigate, that such issues are filling the page-9 of newspapers around the world. Her research shows that counter terrorism began as early as post second world war when Britain and United States were busy containing Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe, France was engaged in a vicious war in Indo-China, where they financed the formation of 'Maquis - men from minorities and hill tribesmen organised in groups of 3000' to fight back the guerrillas using the same terror tactics like public executions and guerilla warfare. This was one of the most effective strategic responses against such an enemy. The next elucidating example, is Afghanistan, where the US government, abetted the formation of mujahideens againts the Russian Army and helped them with ammunitions and finances. Today we are facing the same threat, but there are certain differences. One, the ability of terror groups to share information and collaborate, has been greatly increased by the decreasing asymmetry of information given the internet and other newer forms of instant communication. If you think this is facny, then you are wrong. Remember the Beslan Massacre of September 2004, and sure you would recall the name of 'Shamil Basayev'- the Chechen Guerrilla Leader. The excerpt from the TIME magazine dated 25th OCT 2004, from the article ' Russia's Most Wanted' - "...Besayevs former neighbours comrades-in-arms and friends say he hides during the day in the thick impenetrable forests that carpet the mountains. At night he descends into one of the regions many tiny villages where he recharges the Batteries for his Computers and Satellite Phones...". Second, there is no single state (or Rogue State) which can be taken out like a thorn, which would solve this problem. The terror groups have spread accross all countries and the black economy they govern is estimated to be as big as Five percent of the Worlds GDP. Under such circumstances, the conventional logic which holds that, the peace loving governments of the world must pledge their co-operation ( at G-7s and G-8s of this world) against the threat of terrorism wouldnt work. Those at the helm of it all, would go to war again and the result will be not much different from the bleak picture in Iraq today. In long term this solution is not feasible, instead it simply buys more time for the governments and secures their vote banks too. At the end of it all, the tax-payer neither gets his moneys worth, nor the peace that he pines for.

But, there are no direct or straight answers to this problem, yet there is one solution which stands a genre apart. Consider the situation in Kashmir, a battle-torn state, annexed to India in 1951, to which Pakistan pledges support in their apparent struggle for a sovereign state. It is an omnescient fact that under the veil of a silent and simple islamic country, Pakistan has sponsored terrorist activitities in Kashmir, and the deep links between the Mujahideens and the state's secret service, ISI, have been discussed at depth in the book 'Modern Jihad'. The ISI also runs like an independent body, almost like a Business house, however despicable their business actvity be. Each kashmiri Militant is paid an monthly salary of Rs 2000 or $40, Rs 3500 ($70) or more to an Afghani Militant and Rs 50,000 ($1000) for special planned attacks against Indian Army. A Fidayeen Attack will fetch the militant as much as Rs 1,00,000 or more ($2000). Imagine that ISI is a business house, which employs its only resource which is the militia, at a monthly salary mentioned above. They are trained like servicemen and then infiltrated into the battle ground. Has one ever thought of the consequences of shortage in the supply of required manpower to run this business!!!

If the cost of man-power employed by ISI rises then the whole business model would become unviable. But for this supply pipe to dry-up, it would take some serious conviction and time. If ISI brings most of its new recruits from Northern Afghanistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir, then that is the place (supply source) upon which we must concentrate. Now, consider the following scenario :

Step 1 - India provides humanitarian aid and invest in buiding infrastructure for 'education and healthcare' in these very areas through a Special Purpose Vehicle, which conceals the real identity of its Financer. It could also be through a group of NGOs.

Step 2 - Over the Period the new generation grows into a well educated populace who look for economic opportunities to earn their living rather than fighting to death for a paltry Rs 2000 a month.

Step 3 - Ten years later, the Special Purpose Vehicle invests into the Country's Industries and Services bringing about fresh opportunities for this new generation of educated populace who prefer simpler jobs to fight.

Step 4 - As a result of this developmental activity, the lowest strata of the economy rises and expects more out of life and consequently the number of youngsters opting to join terror camps drop and the Cost per new Recruit rises as more Demand chases lesser Supply.

Thus by investing in the development of Infrastructure through veiled entities and later into Industries and Services, will simply make the business of Terrorism an unviable proposition for the proliferators to continue. Such a strategic step taken today, could save a million lives twenty years from now. This scenario seems more convincing to us than fighting a proxy-with-proxy. The solution is visible, but do the governements have the vision or courage to take such a bold step is the question.

Kaushal Vyas

kaushal.vyas@gmail.com

The Global Undercurrent

Globalization; a continuous process not a destination, has had a lasting effect on the economies throughout the world. For some it meant prosperity and for others it created issues of national importance. But like any other word, this too is open to several interpretations, and the developed world draws satisfaction by limiting the meaning of 'globalization' to movement of kapital, but not Labor; the two essential resource components of any economy. But what they probably lack, is prudence. Considering that remunerations to labor are essentially governed by the standard of living in any economy, a similar task carried out in two different economies will carry different costs. Now when technology makes it possible for the owners of business to transfer jobs beyond the geographical limitations of a country, the jobs would most certainly fly out to those countries where the costs are low. The gradient of development favors the developing economies. The income earned by the way of off-shored jobs increases the consumption levels in the developing economies, as the marginal propensity to consume is high in such countries with minimal living standards. Such a participation of emerging economies in global trade also helps in stabilizing it. This implies that off-shoring jobs gives clear benefits to the servicing country. Now considering the physical movement of manpower, it is clear that there are obvious advantages for both the developing nations and the importing country. This is because when they earn, they still spend a part of their incomes on living, which goes back into the same economy. Moreover, the savings of this labor are also circulated in the economy, and essentially the cost of employing this labor turns out to be the going rate of interest of the economy, which in case of a developed economy is very low. All this leads to two distinct sets of benefits and drawbacks. But surmising the changes in Information and Communication technology, the above arguments appear trivial. This is because; we human beings have defined physical boundaries within which the business was supposed to be carried out. Now with signs of these demarcations diminishing and a whole new world without boundaries; the World Wide Web, getting created, the old rules of business no longer apply. The development of Information and communication technology will enable businesses to meet and discuss issues online without having to meet in person. Technologies like online video-conferencing and next generation IT tools for businesses will have a strong impact on location of offices and travel. Such facilities; being made available at ever reducing prices, warrant against building offices in key business centers where the price of property is atrocious Yes it is true that even today the owners of these concerns shall continue to look for ways to reduce costs, some radically while others in a piecemeal manner. At the end, when it is cost-effective to transport information than to transport human beings then why not offshore. With such convincing reasons favoring off shoring jobs to developing nations, physical movement of manpower lacks lustre. But this is the view shared by the beneficiaries of off shoring. From a developed nation's perspective, it is a complete antithesis, and they would always recommend bring in people than exporting jobs. Therefore, having evaluated the two options and taking into consideration that majority of these developed nations are capitalist societies, that off-shoring may soon take an upper hand over short term welfare of the economy.

A life of 'an' experience.

Enterprenuership comes before any formal education. It is innate.

I come from North Gujarat region of India and I have seen villagers who, for that matter wouldnt even have had a chance to see what a primary school looks like, leave alone graduate schools. But even then, they often, from time to time, come up with great yet simple solutions to complex problems. And throughout India, people from this part of the country are considered great businessmen who have a knack for spotting business opportunities. For these "kanthiyawaris" or "marwadis" as they are often reffered to, rains are scanty and there is not much forage to feed their cattle up in North Gujarat. But it is exactly these circumstances which force them into thinking diffrent and as time passes by they become great Resource managers and innovative thinkers. For them, Innovation and Optimal resource management is about "survival". Now if someone can see the very reason for their enterpreneurial successes. Its about Confidence and Willingness ( in their case its compulsion and not willingess !)